The Asian Crisis,Gender, and the International Financial Architecture

This paper begins with an account of the Asian crisis, its creation and management by international financial institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank), and the gender impact of their stabilization and structural adjustment programs. Next we consider the new debate on reforming the IMF and the World Bank and restructuring the international financial architecture to prevent crises and manage them more effectively. Finally, we consider the gender ramifications of these changes. Since feminists have been absent from this debate, we examine issues essential to the formation of a gender-conscious international financial structure.     

Antecedents and consequences of the perceived adjustment of Japanese expatriates in the USA

The present study was designed to better understand the antecedents and consequences of expatriate adjustment in an international assignment. The researchers surveyed Japanese expatriates assigned to the United States. Structural equation modeling was utilized to test our hypotheses and model. The results indicated that previous knowledge of the host country, language proficiency, willingness to communicate and perception of the novelty of the host culture were differentially related to expatriates' adjustment to the host country. General and work adjustments were negatively related to expatriates' intent to return early. In addition, interrelationships among the adjustment dimensions were examined and the results indicated that general adjustment leads to work adjustment, which, in turn, influences interactional adjustment. Implications for future research are presented.     

Forward and spot exchange rates in a bivariate TAR framework

Structural exchange rate models explain only a small part of the movements in dollar exchange rate. Recent empirical work has focused on the failure to account for nonlinearities in the data generating mechanism, as an explanation of this bad performance. Here two bivariate threshold autoregressive models for the spot and forward exchange rates are considered. In the first model the regimes are determined by the log difference of the two rates; in the second one the regimes are driven by the forward spot no-arbitrage condition. These processes are able to capture the ‘swing’ behaviour observed in the exchange rate market. Finally the forecasting ability of the models for the dollar/DM exchange rate is evaluated by stochastic simulation.     

Estimating dynamic response models when the data are subject to different temporal aggregation

In estimating response models using secondary data, it can happen that the observations on the variables are subject to different temporal aggregation. Estimating a dynamic model with this type of data is not straightforward, particularly when (a) estimates with good statistical properties are desired, and (b) full use of all information in the data is needed. This paper provides an overview and discussion of the various approaches to the estimation problem when independent variables are observed less frequently than the dependent variable. The superiority of one-step estimation procedures that simultaneously estimate the parameters and the missing disaggregated data points is established.Insead     

Econometrics and inconsistencies in the national accounts

Economic data are typically inconsistent with national accounting identities, contain measurement errors and are sometimes unavailable. A generalized conditioned least square procedure for the adjustment of data is proposed to deal with these problems. It is shown how the resulting data may be used for FIML estimation of the parameters of dynamic models (and the data themselves) with the aid of the Kalman-Bucy filter. An illustrative application of the proposed techniques to UK data is reported.     

Detecting nonlinearity in time series by model selection criteria

This article analyzes the use of model selection criteria for detecting nonlinearity in the residuals of a linear model. Model selection criteria are applied for finding the order of the best autoregressive model fitted to the squared residuals of the linear model. If the order selected is not zero, this is considered as an indication of nonlinear behavior. The BIC and AIC criteria are compared to some popular nonlinearity tests in three Monte Carlo experiments. We conclude that the BIC model selection criterion seems to offer a promising tool for detecting nonlinearity in time series. An example is shown to illustrate the performance of the tests considered and the relationship between nonlinearity and structural changes in time series.     

广西产业结构调整与金融支持研究

金融是现代经济的核心,是引导经济资源配置的重要动力。社会经济的发展得益于产业结构的不断调整、优化、升级,而产业结构的优化调整始终离不开金融的支持。本文系基于金融作用于产业结构调整进行机理分析的基础上,以广西产业结构发展现状作为研究对象,分析产业结构调整中金融支持方面存在的问题,最后就如何才能更好地支持产业结构调整升级给出了几点建议。     

汇率调整是否能有效的改变贸易逆差呢?——从金融市场完善程度差异性的角度分析

随着全球失衡的加剧,作为世界主要贸易逆差国的美国希望通过敦促其逆差来源国货币升值的途径,来改善自己的贸易逆差。但是这一调整策略是否能够达到预期的结果呢?本文通过对美国的逆差来源国货币升值的绩效分析发现,货币升值能否改变失衡的局面取决于一国的金融完善程度。金融市场较为完善的国家对于汇率调整的敏感度更高,而金融市场较为不发达的国家则对于这种调整不甚敏感。中国受限于金融市场完善程度,导致人民币升值不能改善其国际收支失衡的现状,而美国也不会获得预期的收益。     

如何提升授信审批在信贷结构调整中的战略价值

当前,国内外经济金融环境正发生着深刻的变化,机遇与挑战并存。我省提出的加快经济增长方式转变和总行提出的加快经营转型都要求我们必须主动加快信贷结构调整,使信贷结构更好地与宏观经济政策和地区经济发展相适应,与全行资产负债结构相匹配。在国家新一轮宏观经济调控周期和银行信贷政策调整过程中,授信审批工作如何从突出信贷结构调整的战略高度,结合信贷结构调整中面临的问题不断优化客户、产品、行业、期限、收益结构,并在审批理念、审批体制机制、审批服务、审批队伍建设等方面进一步提升授信审批的战略价值,保障其职能作用的有效发挥,对此,本文进行了一些积极探索。     

Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex-ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific noise covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.